Promotions are a critical part of career advancement, but the path to getting there is often murky.
This is partially because what people say they want and what they really respond to are two different things. And partially because promotions are influenced by human biases and the need to maintain a facade of fairness.
Understanding how promotions actually work and positioning yourself to receive them can significantly enhance your chances. Here’s a detailed, no-nonsense guide to help you navigate the complex world of workplace promotions, which is a zero-sum game.
Types of Promotions – All Zero Sum
Promotions are a zero-sum game because there are a limited number of higher positions available. For one person to move up, another must either move up, move out, or be eliminated.
Because it’s a zero-sum game: organizations need a strategy to keep the workforce from rebelling. They must provide legitimate excuses everyone can consent to for their promotion decisions, both to placate people, and to maintain a semblance of fairness, as well as to have genuine buy-in. (Hint: it’s not all corruption. But neither is it all fair.)
Seniority-Based Promotion
Seniority-based promotions reward longevity and loyalty. While not as prevalent as they once were, some organizations still use this method, favoring employees who have been with the company the longest. (If you talk to a boomer about promotions, they still think the world works this way.)
If you happen to work for an organization that uses seniority based promotions, you are one of the rare few. On the one hand, this approach is harder to corrupt. On the other, it creates weaker organizations as ambitious and competent individual seek better opportunities where they can get ahead faster.
Performance-Based Promotion
Performance-based promotions are awarded based on merit. This method evaluates your contributions, skills, and overall performance in your current role.
Most corporations today claim to use this method, and most people implicitly assume that we operate in a meritocracy. Unfortunately, the definition of “performance” is often subjective and can be manipulated to suit the decision-makers’ biases.
Keep in mind this does not necessarily mean that all promotion decisions are invalid, where merit is only used as an excuse to a promotion post-hoc. But it does mean that the definition of merit in one organization, or even under one boss, does not necessarily match the definition of merit elsewhere.
In other words: merit IS subjective.
How Managers Say They Choose Employees to Promote
According to a Forbes article, managers consider several key factors when deciding whom to promote (Forbes did a good job summarizing the popular perspective):
- Self-Starters: Proactive individuals who take initiative.
- Performance Metrics: Quantifiable achievements and results.
- Responsibility: Owning tasks and outcomes.
- Problem-Solving: Offering solutions rather than complaints.
- People Skills: Effective interpersonal communication.
- Learning Opportunities: Seeking out and embracing new knowledge.
- Feedback: Actively seeking and acting on constructive criticism.
- Employee Sentiment: Gauging the overall mood and opinions of the team.
The characteristics listed above may not necessarily be the absolute reason behind a promotion, but they can still be considered aspirational reasons for promotions: For instance, no one is going to object to someone being promoted because they are a self-starter and have the performance metrics to back it.
Of course, using these aspirational reasons people craft all sorts of strategies to help them get promoted…
What Mainstream Advice Says You Should Do to Get Promoted
Mainstream advice often recommends developing certain traits to get promoted:
- Be Proactive: Identify and address what needs to be done.
- Understand and Adapt: Know your job description but stay flexible.
- Take on More Responsibilities: Voluntarily assume additional tasks.
- Exceed Expectations: Go beyond your job requirements.
- Be Receptive: Be open to direction and training.
- Collaborate: Work well with others.
- Engage: Be actively involved in your work and team.
- Demonstrate Exceptional Qualities: Show above-average abilities.
- Show Value: Clearly illustrate how you’ve been an asset to the organization.
- Document Achievements: Use data to highlight your achievements.
These are all reasonable recommendations, and they create reasonable, even pleasant people to work with. In fact, in our teaching materials we encapsulate ALL of these traits under the notion of “professionalism“. It’s not rocket science: be a professional and you will not only be able to create value, but your co-workers, as well as your boss, will enjoy working with you.
Of course… There are details to consider…
If we take managers at their word, and assume a perfectly fair system, the above advice is perfectly on point. Unfortunately, we cannot take managers at their word or assume a perfectly fair system.
To get promoted in the real world we need to take on a stronger approach…
How Managers Really Choose Which Employees They Promote
There are some studies you can uncover that highlight how people really get promoted. Here are a couple of highlights:
Current Performance
A study using microdata on sales workers found evidence consistent with the Peter Principle. This principle is explained in Wikipedia as: “employees are promoted based on their success in previous jobs until they reach a level at which they are no longer competent, as skills in one job do not necessarily translate to another.”
This study found that firms often prioritize current job performance over other characteristics that better predict managerial success (Quarterly Journal of Economics). Meaning: All other factors being equal, your upcoming performance review has more of an impact on your ability to get promoted than anything else.
(Pro Tip: Incidentally, this is partially why, job hopping every 1-3 years, following a promotion at each job, is a great strategy to climb the ladder. It doesn’t have to take long to get promoted, especially since your most recent performance record has disproportional impact.)
Personality
Personality also plays a significant role. But not necessarily in the way you might think…
For instance, most people used to think that having a “Type-A Personality” resulted in promotions. And perhaps for a time, it did. But a study in Human Resource Management found that, actually, leaders with humility – defined as viewing themselves accurately, admitting mistakes, appreciating others’ strengths, and being teachable – were more likely to be seen as promotable (Wiley Online Library).
What this shows is that, different cultural moments prioritize different personalities for promotion – most likely because such personalities are seen as more virtuous. Therefore, it is important to develop emotional intelligence and be aware of the popular virtues of the organization you’re in.
Immutable Characteristics
Unfortunately, certain unchangeable factors, such as gender, can also impact promotion prospects. Research from MIT Sloan found that female employees are less likely to be promoted than their male counterparts, even when performance is comparable (Danielle Li, MIT Sloan). There are other studies that relate to ethnicity and nationality as well.[1]
While such statistical correlations do not necessarily prove bias, they do present facts. Yet, we typically recommend putting bias aside and focusing on other leverage points. Remember: the individual can take actions for their career development that far surpass any benefit they could personally gain from combating bias through activism. (Unless of course you can sue an organization for discrimination, in which case, you should! The payouts are hefty…)
Ultimately, looking through the data we can see some trends behind who gets promoted. This, of course, should naturally lead us to asking “why?”.
Why do the people that get promoted, get promoted?
Why Managers Pick People to Promote the Way They Do
Promotions aren’t just about merit; they’re influenced by a complex web of human biases, organizational politics, and strategic as well as tactical decisions. Understanding the real reasons behind promotion choices is necessary if you wish to win the zero sum game.
Human Biases and Preferences
Managers, like all humans, have inherent biases. They may subconsciously favor employees who remind them of themselves or who fit a certain mold. This can include biases based on personality, work style, or even superficial factors like appearance and demeanor.
These biases often lead managers to promote individuals who they personally like or feel comfortable with, rather than those who might be objectively more qualified. And since the traditional approach to promotions often involves pleasing the boss and being servile, hoping to rise through their good graces, human biases and preferences implicitly drive many, if not most promotion decisions.
Organizational Politics
In many workplaces, politics play a crucial role in promotion decisions. Managers often have to balance multiple interests and power dynamics within the organization. Promoting someone might be a strategic move to strengthen alliances, placate influential team members, or maintain a balance of power.
Risk Aversion
Managers are typically risk-averse. Promoting someone is a gamble, and they prefer candidates who present the least risk of failure. This often means that they favor employees with a proven (justifiable) track record, even if other candidates might have higher potential.
Managers want to avoid the possibility of promoting someone who might not perform well in a higher role, as this reflects poorly on their judgment. They are ultimately responsible for their hiring and promotion decisions, and you cannot blame them for being cautious.
The Need for Stability
Because promotions are a zero-sum game, managers must ensure that their decisions do not disrupt the team’s stability. They need to justify their choices in a way that maintains team morale and cohesion. This means selecting candidates who are perceived as deserving by the majority, which can sometimes mean choosing the “safe” option over the truly exceptional one.
Keep in mind, the larger the organization gets the greater the need for stability. (Sidenote: some in our network have even argued that the stagnation and subsequent decline of large corporations is in large part caused by this addiction to stability in promotion and hiring decisions.)
Performance and Potential
While performance-based promotions are ideal in theory, in practice, managers often conflate current performance with potential for future roles (Again, the Peter Principle from above).
This is why top performers in their current roles are frequently promoted, even if the skills required for the new position are different. Managers use past performance as a proxy for future success, despite evidence suggesting that other factors might be better indicators of potential.
Keep in mind, there is no good way to argue a manager out of falling back on the Peter Principle. At this point in time, this heuristic is so deeply ingrained in our culture, many people confuse “promoting top performers” with good management!
External Pressures
Managers are also influenced by external pressures such as diversity goals, market competition, and economic conditions. These pressures can shape promotion decisions, sometimes leading to the elevation of employees who fulfill certain strategic criteria beyond mere performance metrics. (It’s much more common than you think, and has been that way not only for the past few years, but in fact, the past 4 decades.)
With all these reasons listed…
You’ll now be able understand why managers pick the people they do for promotions. And with a little thinking, you’ll quickly realize that the traditional approach to promotions often involves pleasing the boss hoping for their good graces.
Of course, this method is not ideal, and far from what we recommend…
What You Should Really Do to Get Promoted
Promotions are not just handed out; they are won. Here’s what you should really do to get promoted.
Leverage
Understand and utilize your leverage. Leverage is not just a negotiation term – it’s power. It’s about forcing the decision-makers to promote you because they recognize they can’t afford to lose you.
Your leverage comes from your unique skills, critical contributions, and irreplaceable value to the organization. For instance, if you hold specialized knowledge that no one else in the company possesses, you can use this as a compelling argument. Make it clear that losing you would significantly disrupt operations or project success, thereby pressuring them to promote you to ensure your continued contribution.
Of course, leverage must be used tactfully and discretely. There are a few right ways to use leverage that get you promoted, and many wrong ways that get you swiftly defenestrated. Learn the details before using leverage.
Decision Maker’s Self-Interest
Align your goals with the self-interest of those making promotion decisions. Show them how promoting you benefits them directly. For example, if your manager is under pressure to increase team productivity, demonstrate how your promotion would enable you to lead initiatives that have already proven to boost performance.
Highlighting how your promotion aligns with their objectives is a fundamental key to moving up. If promoting you is simultaneously promoting themselves, you’ll rise at unimaginable speeds.
Market Demand
Position yourself as a highly desired asset in the marketplace. Make it clear that your skills and expertise are in high demand, and that losing you to a competitor would be a significant blow to your current organization. For example, if your specialized skills are rare and coveted in your industry, you can use this to your advantage. By networking, engaging with industry leaders, and even entertaining job offers, you can demonstrate your market value and make it painful for your employer to imagine you joining the competition. This pressure can strongly incentivize them to promote you to retain your valuable contributions.
Special Note: This way of playing one employer against another must be done even more tactfully than using typical leverage. Mishandling this strategy can backfire, potentially getting you blacklisted or even in legal trouble for extortion. (If you only knew 🙄…)
Learn the ins and outs of executing Market Demand Leverage effectively through our events.
BATNA (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement)
Your ability to walk away from your current job is a powerful tool. Cultivate outside opportunities to ensure you’re not solely reliant on your current employer. For instance, having a job offer from another reputable company gives you a strong bargaining chip. This doesn’t mean you need to constantly job hunt (although you can automate it through Launch Your Career), but staying connected and aware of opportunities ensures you have options if your current employer doesn’t meet your expectations.
Develop Benefactors
Cultivate relationships with powerful individuals outside your immediate hierarchy who can advocate for you. These benefactors can open doors and provide opportunities that your direct manager cannot, or will not. (More on this later)
Control the Narrative
Shape the story around your contributions and achievements. Make sure that your successes are visible and recognized by those who matter (boss, benefactors and key stakeholders). This could involve presenting at key meetings, sharing progress updates, or getting influential colleagues to acknowledge your work publicly.
The more you control the narrative, the more you position yourself as an essential and high-performing team member whose promotion seems like a natural progression. Remember: half the battle is getting the decision makers to want to promote you, while the other half is giving them sufficient justification to pacify the rest of the workforce. Make their justification easy.
Identify and Exploit Organizational Gaps
Look for gaps or inefficiencies in your organization that you can address. By stepping into roles or taking on projects that are neglected or underperforming, you can create value that others haven’t.
This approach shows your initiative, and also, your ability to deliver results where others have not. For example, if there’s a project that’s been stalled due to lack of leadership, taking charge and driving it to success can set you apart as an indispensable leader.
Of course, how you do this matters and is nuanced. Stepping on the wrong toes is more likely to get you kicked out, rather than promoted. Learn how the game is played first, and ask one of your mentors for personalized guidance.
The Ugly Truth About Promotions
Corporations are autocratic capital growth engines that are built to create value using human labor. This would be fine if we lived in a fair world where the market determined where capital needs to be allocated, and merit dictated who got into what position…
Unfortunately, we do not live in a fair world.
In the real world, most corporations are tyrannies that serve the interest of those who have access and proximity to power. In that context, most bosses – personally – gain career making or breaking power over individual professionals.
Yes, you do have some control, especially if you keep your eyes open, refuse to drink the Kool-aid, and use the strategies we outlined above (along with, of course, the rest of our material).
But even with all that, you should still be intimately aware of the fact that your boss has minimal incentive to promote you beyond retaining you as an employee.
This is why job hopping remains one of the most effective methods for achieving significant promotions, although it comes with its own set of challenges, such as overcoming the “you don’t have this title” obstacle – a core topic covered in our Launch Your Career program.
Of course, our strategies listed above, especially developing benefactors, can also open doors for promotions without needing to switch jobs. It’s also worth noting that we are working on a comprehensive Benefactor Development Guide, which you should keep an eye out for. (Hint: get on the Career Hacks Newsletter – if it’s still open to the public)
Conclusion
Promotions are complex and influenced by many factors. By understanding the dynamics at play, you can position yourself for success.
The rewards are significant. They can mean the difference between toiling away in an open-floor office or a cramped cubicle by the heater, versus creating value in a corner office with your own personal assistant.
They can also mean the difference between a five-figure salary and a six, seven, or even eight-figure income.
Anyone who desires to achieve their fullest potential and live a life of abundance and success must take promotions seriously. After all, your career trajectory is not just about your job title – it’s about your financial security, your professional fulfillment, and your ability to create the life you’ve always dreamed of.